I saw this post on FreedomCardBoard.com written by Teleplayer22 and I really enjoyed his rundown. We will be posting a follow up to this tomorrow. I won’t bog it down with much by me, but I hope everyone enjoys our first guest column at Superfractor.com.
Here’s my take on the players after watching games and videos, and reading from a few different sources. Feel free to disagree — that’s one of the points of the thread, considering that a lot of this information is purely an opinion. This might provide some insight if you are completely lost on what you pulled.
The dollar amount represents what I think the card will be selling for half-way through the 2009 season.
BDP111 SS Wilmer Flores (b. 8/6/1991, 6’3, 175, R/R) — New York Mets
Flores has just about the highest ceiling of anyone in this set, and is definitely one of the front-runners for bringing in the most cash from the 08 autos. The thing is, at the age of 16, Wilmer didn’t just fare well in Rookie ball, he slugged .490. He put up respectable BB/K for his age (12/28), also. I don’t expect Flores to stay at shortstop — he’ll probably outgrow the position as he gets older and stronger. While Flores hit with much more power than shortstop Carlos Triunfel did during the 2007 campaign (when he was 17), Flores is still almost entirely projection. Nonetheless, not many players hit the ground running at the age of 16, and he’s going to draw a lot of comparisons to Miguel Cabrera this season. The big drawback to the card is the fact that it’s a redemption. $45
BDP112 SS/3B Lonnie Chisenhall (b. 10/4/1988, 6’0, 200, L/R) — Cleveland Indians
Pretty average in all respects. I’m predicting a Chad Huffman like year from him in terms of production. He has a chance to be a relatively decent baseball player, with no exceptionally astounding skills or hideous flaws. He has a short, line-drive oriented swing that should be good for a home run total in the 10-15 range next year. was The big concern that I had was with his makeup — he was kicked off the USC baseball team for attempting to steal computers at his school — one has to wonder how serious the player is when they commit something that heinous.
$10
BDP113 RP Carlos Gutierrez (b. 9/22/1986, 6’3, 205, R/R) — Minnesota Twins
Ouch! Gutierrez was not a strong pick for the Twins, and you really don’t want him as your box hit. Reliever coming off Tommy John surgery, combined with the fact that he only has one legitimate pitch. There’s just not a lot here.
$7
BDP114 SP Derek Holland (b. 10/9/1986, 6’2, 185, B/L) — Texas Rangers
Here’s a dominant pitcher. He wasn’t drafted this year, but he’s put up a 4/1 K/BB ratio with over 10 K’s per inning over the last 2 years between low-A and AA. He’s improved with every step, posting a sub 0.80 WHIP to end the 2008 campaign with AA Frisco. He really has a chance to set himself apart as the best pitcher in the set.
$40
BDP115 OF Michael Stanton (b. 11/9/1989, 6’5, 205 R/R) — Florida Marlins
First of all, 39 home runs in A ball at the age of 18 is extraordinary. People are going crazy over his tools, 6’5 frame, and 1.000 OPS, but I’m calling a drop in production next year. Prospectors will quickly remember Brandon Wood and Brian Dopirak, both of whom had incredible seasons at the age of 20 in A/A+ ball. Both of these players put up very similar numbers to Stanton, and while Stanton is way ahead of both Wood and Dopirak age-wise, I don’t think he can put up his power next year in AA. He strikes out 1 out of every 3 at-bats, which sends up a big red flag. He has light tower power, but I want to see him play in A+ or AA before I believe that he can get by with that many strikeouts.
$43
BDP116 1B Ike Davis (b. 3/22/1987, 6’4, 205, L/L) — New York Mets
Simply put, Ike LOOKS like a baseball player. He’s projectable and athletic, and can play 1B or the corner outfield. He has modest BB/K ratios throughout his career, but I do not think that he will ever hit more than 15 or 20 home runs in a season. He doesn’t have a clean weight transfer in his swing, and has (to a lesser degree) a Matt Antonelli approach of poking the bat forward to hit line drives. I think aluminum bats and general athleticism allowed him to clobber 16 home runs at Arizona St. in 2008, but 0 home runs in 215 at-bats in low-A is no fluke — I do not think he’s going to generate the 30 home run power that some are predicting
$14
BDP117 SS Anthony Hewitt (b. 4/27/1989, 6’1, 190, R/R) — Philadelphia Phillies
Ugh. Very unimpressive swing that’s just miserably handsy. His hands and body disconnect, resulting in a complete loss of power. He fits the Greg Golson/Michael Bourne mold of recent Phillies draft picks — all projection and limited baseball skills. He’s going to draw B.J. Upton comparisons from believers, as he’s exceptionally athletic, but Hewitt has an extremely long way to go before he turns athleticism into home runs. He struck out 55 times in 117 at-bats in his pro debut. I’m predicting a C.J. Henry like season.
$5
BDP118 SS Gordon Beckham (b. 9/16/1986, 6’0, 185, R/R) — Chicago White Sox
It’s all about sticking at shortstop. Some people don’t think he has the arm or range to stay at short, and will have to move to second. I’m not terribly high on him, as I think he opens up his hips a little bit early in his swing. I think he has the tools to be a well above-average major league shortstop, but nothing screams superstar. I think he could easily hit .290-20 in the major leagues, and could easily settle into a Stephen Drew like mold.
$35
BDP119 RP Daniel Schlereth (b. 5/9/1986, 6’1, 210, L/L) — Arizona Diamondbacks
He’s a powerful college closer that could move very quickly through the system. In terms of baseball card collectibility, though, there’s not a whole lot of room for growth. He won’t be moving to the rotation, so the highest I see his card selling for is
$8
BDPP120 CF Zach Collier (b. 9/8/1990, 6’2, 185, L/L) — Philadelphia Phillies
I really like this selection, and Collier is a good buy at under $10 per chrome. He’s very young, but unlike Hewitt, he has a very advanced swing for his age. Collier has a good chance to develop plus power and contact ability, with speed to spare. Collier has an excellent, short plane to the ball in his swing. I’m mostly nitpicking when it comes to pointing out flaws in his swing (his elbows have little bend, sapping some of his power at the point of contact), but Collier is close to Aaron Hicks in terms of the best high school outfielders in the draft.
$22
LHP BDPP121 Evan Frederickson (b. 9/23/1986, 6’6, 240, L/L) — Milwaukee Brewers
Ouch! Not a good pick by the Brewers. 26 walks in 20 IP in his low-A ball debut was no fluke — Frederickson really has poor mechanics. He spins off the mound when he throws, and his glove and his throwing arm spiral across his body after the release point. Not much to say here, Frederickson will walk his way out of baseball before he sniffs the majors.
$5
LHP BDPP122 Mike Montgomery (b. 7/1/1989, 6’4, 190 L/L) — Kansas City Royals
He’s a long ways away, but Montgomery doesn’t have too many mechanical flaws. Right now, his main problem is developing better off-speed offerings. There aren’t any heinous flaws in his mechanics, and I’d imagine that he’ll experience some success against low-A competition, as he won’t have to rely on his off-speed pitches very much. Montgomery is a 4+ years away, but his ability to move forward depends on how quickly and easily he masters the curveball, which is the pitch he really lacks. Pretty safe bet to not implode or spike.
$7
BDPP123 RHP Cody Adams (b. 11/26/1986, 6’2, 180, R/R) — Milwaukee Brewers
Not a bad pick here. Adams has aggressive mechanics, and, similar to Montgomery, doesn’t have any major flaws. His main problem is that he doesn’t really firm up his glove hand during the delivery, but he has good momentum and rhythm in his delivery. Nothing really jumps out at me, but he’s potentially a sleeper.
$8
BDPP124 LHP Brad Hand (b. 3/20/1990, 6’3, 220, L/L) — Florida Marlins
Nothing to see here. The MLB draft report touted Hand as “more of a thrower than a pitcher right now.” Frankly, Hand’s delivery is disastrous. He practically falls off the mound due to so much lateral effort. His entire arm drags behind in the delivery. Just poor, poor mechanics. Expect Hand to suffer some kind of serious elbow injury this year. His maximum effort, unrefined mechanics are a sure sign of disaster.
$4
OF BDPP125 Josh Reddick (b. 2/19/1987, 6’2, 180, L/R) — Boston Red Sox
The player that Jason Place wishes he was. Reddick will be drawing a lot of Jeff Francoeur comparisons this year — aggressive swing, athleticism, excellent arm strength, and lack of walks. His strike out rate is a little bit concerning — 36 in 95 AFL at-bats this fall, but it’s never been a terrible problem in the past. I think his 17 home runs in 312 at-bats were inflated by the CAL league parks, but Reddick has a decent power potential. I think we can expect a .260-.265/20 home run season out of Reddick this year in AA. Not a bad player by any means.
$23
BDPP126 Michel Inoa (b. 9/24/1991, 6’7, 210, R/R) — Oakland Athletics
There’s not a lot to be said for Inoa. He’s considered one of the best Dominican Republic imports in the last 10 years, and he signed a 5 mil. deal with the A’s at the age of 16. Without statistics or a video, though, there isn’t much to judge. Similar to Delmon Young in 2003, some of Inoa’s cards are redemptions, and some are already signed for BCDP. Without more information, I can’t make a prediction on future prices.
BDPP127 C Jesus Montero (b. 10/28/1989, 6’4, 225 R/R) — New York Yankees
Jesus had a lot of things going for him this season — first of all, he slugged .491 at the age of 18 in low-A ball, and he put up fairly modest BB/K numbers. One thing that really impresses me is that he had 34 doubles to go along with 17 home runs. That kind of power potential out of a big-bodied catcher is hard to come by. The cards are redemptions, but I think he’s a very good gamble right now. The hype machine is sure to start running on Montero, and he put up a lot more power than Fernando Martinez at the same age. This card definitely has room to grow.
$48
BDPP128 C Buster Posey (b. 3/27/1987, 6’2, 200, R/R) — San Francisco Giants
The fabled Buster Posey! No one was prepared for Posey’s giant spike from 3 home runs in 2007 to 26 in 2008 at FSU. I think Posey is a very good catcher, but right now, I’m not a fan of the $55+ price tag for chrome autographs. In my mind, Posey has a chance to hit over .300 with 15-20 home runs a year, along with excellent defense. Posey is not going to be a 30-35 home run a year guy — his swing is suited for line drives. Good player, but not at the current price.
$43
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